(5). MODAL Verb and Deduction (Probability)

Deduction and Probability  Deduction and Probability are about making prediction about event or situation. The importance is knowing how sure the prediction will happen or probably happen.   If we are really sure about our prediction (80-100%), we use must or will ( cannot or will not for negative sentence) but if we are not really sure of our prediction or doubtful, we use may, might or could.  There are two kinds of deduction and probability such as present and past form. STRONGLY SURE Present form is used for present situation by using this pattern (must or will  + V1).                Owen always thinks about Oliv. Owen must love Oliv. Past form is used for past situation by using this pattern (Must Have + V3).                               Owen always thought about Oliv. Owen must have loved Oliv. NOT REALLY SURE  Present form is used for present situation by using this pattern (Might, may, could + V1).               He brings a  plastic bag. He may buy a book. Past form is used for past situation by using this pattern (Might, may, could +  Have + V3).                             He brought a  plastic bag. He may have bought a book.

Exercise 0  Carol must have missed (must / miss) her bus, otherwise she'd be here now.  1  You ........................................  (can't / see) Jack yesterday as he's not here at the moment.   2  Naomi ........................................  (might / sit) on a beach somewhere as I write this. Lucky her!  3  Harry ........................................  (might / know) how to get to the restaurant. Why don't you ask him?  4  Lucy ........................................  (may / forget) it's your birthday. You know how absent-minded she can be.   5  Surely you ........................................  (can't / believe) all those stories on the internet. You're so gullible!  0  Mike ______ have forgotten your party. I'm sure there's a good explanation for his not being here.   a) won't b) must c) might 1  That _____ be a really good book as you haven't stopped reading for hours.   a) may b) must c) might 2  I'm afraid you've missed Jana. She _____ have left for the airport already.   a) can't b) may c) 'll 3  You ____ have heard that story before! It was supposed to be a secret.   a) won't b) can't c) mustn't 4  Dan _____ be around later; he's not sure yet.   a) Must b) can c) might 5  Clare ____ believe those urban legends, but I certainly don't.   a) may b) must c) can't 0 You must / can't be hungry after that huge pizza! 1  Dan might / will be watching the local news. He always does at this time. 2  You must / may have heard what happened to Paolo. Everyone's talking about it. 3  I'm sure Marina will / may have checked her emails. 4  William must / might just believe your story, but I wouldn't rely on it. 5  Tom won't / mustn't be at school tomorrow because he's ill. might        must have        may have        will        can't        won't have 0  Fran might know the answers to the homework – she often does. 1  You ..............................  met Phil before because he's new here. 2  Sam ..............................  be at the gym so you can find him there. 3  You ..............................  left your mobile phone at home if you haven't got it with you. 4  Josh ..............................  have a new job already. He's only been looking for a couple of days. 5  We ..............................  been here before. I honestly can't remember.